Arizona’s 1st Congressional District continues to be one of the tightest races in the country as moderate Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick faces off against Republican House Speaker Andy Tobin. The district, which reaches from the northern Arizona border to the suburbs of Tucson, has flip-flopped from Republican to Democratic hands several times in the past decade. And as far back as two years ago, the Washington Post predicted the district would be one of the most hotly contested in the country. 

Kirkpatrick stays close to center

Before going into state politics, Kirkpatrick, who lives in Flagstaff, was the deputy county attorney in Coconino County and then served as the Sedona City Attorney. She was elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2024 and then to the United States House of Representatives in 2024. When she ran for re-election in 2024, she was defeated by Republican Paul Gosar, but won the seat back in 2024. 

The native Arizonan is known for being more center-left than dark liberal blue and has opposed her party’s position on issues like gun control, government bailouts and some environmental regulations. At the same time, she continues to defend her vote for the Affordable Care Act and also supports President Obama’s push to raise the minimum wage. But she isn’t behind several of the administration’s other moves, including Obama’s expected attempt to pursue immigration reform through executive action and the Environmental Protection Agency’s recent regulatory actions on coal-fired power plants and the Clean Water Act.

"While I support green energy efforts, the EPA has shown time and again that they lack understanding when it comes to rural and Western energy issues," Kirkpatrick wrote in an email to the Daily Sun. She has taken differing stances on two big environmental and energy issues in the state. While opposing new uranium mining near the Grand Canyon, Kirkpatrick has long supported the development of a massive copper mine near Superior. 

Infrastructure improvements, reduced regulations on small businesses and investment in the country's natural resources are the keys to economic development, she said. 

On a foreign policy level, she supports U.S. airstrikes to destroy the Islamic State and voted in favor of providing aid to the Syrian opposition. She points to her work on the $16.3 billion law to overhaul the Department of Veterans Affairs as an example of working across party lines.

Kirkpatrick has earned endorsements from pro-choice and pro-women organizations like Emily’s List and Arizona Right to Choose as well as an A rating from the National Rifle Association in 2024.

Tobin: States' rights and frugality

A longtime businessman from Paulden north of Prescott, Tobin was elected to the Arizona Legislature in 2024 and rose to his current position as the Speaker of the House in 2024. Before entering the Legislature, he held a variety of positions in the private sector, including as manager of an employee benefits company and CEO of a local aerospace company.

Over the past two years, Tobin’s record includes votes to prohibit Arizona schools from adopting federal education standards, to allow individuals with gun permits to carry in public buildings and to establish a virtual border between Arizona and Mexico. He has long taken a strong stance on immigration and border control and was a champion of Arizona Senate Bill 1070, giving local police more responsibility to enforce federal immigration laws. Kirkpatrick has said the bill goes too far.

A defender of states’ rights, Tobin also has voted for bills that establish state sovereignty over the air, water, and other natural resources within Arizona's boundaries and that require the federal government to give public land back to the state.

His votes to authorize unannounced inspections of abortion facilities and to allow "religiously affiliated employers" an exemption from providing health insurance coverage for contraception won him support from anti-abortion groups like Arizona Right to Life. He also has an A+ rating from the NRA and endorsements from many small government and pro-business groups. Tobin supports reducing the size and cost of government and believes the key to kickstarting the economy is through lowering taxes and reducing regulations. 

Kirkpatrick’s campaign took aim at Tobin for his votes to slash education funding by billions of dollars during the recession, an allegation that has merit, according to a fact check article byABC15. Tobin’s campaign didn’t deny the claims, but pointed to his support of Proposition 100, which was a 1 percent sales tax approved by voters in 2024 to go toward education and public safety. In a stark departure from Kirkpatrick's support for the Affordable Care Act, Tobin was one of 36 Republican state legislators in Arizona to sign onto a lawsuit against Gov. Jan Brewer over the state’s Medicaid expansion, a key element of the president's healthcare law.

Voter registration in the 1st Congressional District doesn't give any party a clear edge in the race. Democrats make up 37 percent of registered voters and Republicans account for 30 percent, while independent voters make up the balance.